< The Result of the Bet. >
#62
The Result of the Bet.
In Mexico, large-scale capital flight by foreign funds began.
This was due to the crisis affecting the Mexican peso.
On that day alone, $6 billion flowed out of the Mexican Central Bank.
However, that was just the beginning.
On the 22nd, Mexico widened the fluctuation range of the dollar exchange rate against the US dollar and implemented another devaluation measure.
At the beginning of 1994, the exchange rate was 3.1 pesos to the dollar.
When Hankyung signed the contract with Goldman Sachs, it had already fallen to 3.5 pesos.
No one on Wall Street expected the new government, which won the August general election, to devalue the peso.
By early next year, if my memory serves me right, it will reach 7 pesos to the dollar before the contract matures.
With one bet, he made a profit of over 50 times.
— You were right, Muhyeok.
Hankyung's voice was trembling.
“Ha...”
I couldn't help but sigh.
Even knowing the future, I couldn't help but feel tense.
The tension suddenly eased.
— When will you liquidate?
“Let's wait until January.”
— Hmm... I'll do whatever you say. Just tell me when to liquidate.
“Okay. I'll call you later. Keep an eye on it.”
— Yeah, got it. Stay on high alert until we liquidate. Don't worry about that.
The call with Hankyung ended.
Feeling the tension ease, sleep started to come over me.
'If it goes as planned, the profit should be between $1.5 billion and $2 billion.'
Thinking about the potential earnings, I fell asleep without realizing it.
* * *
Goldman Sachs headquarters.
“What the hell is going on!”
Tommy, the CFO, burst into Peter's office.
Peter, who had been dazed, jumped up from his seat.
“What happened to the peso!”
“The Mexican government has devalued the peso.”
Tommy's face turned as white as a sheet, and he pressed his hand to his forehead.
“What's the current rate?”
“It's still 4 pesos before the market reacts, but we don't know how much it will fall by tomorrow.”
“Wasn't the rate 5 pesos when we signed the contract?”
Peter asked, his voice trembling.
“Did they really expect this to happen?”
“Unbelievable. How could a new hedge fund know something we didn't! How much did we bring in?”
“Half was sold to clients, and half was ours...”
“Ha...”
Tommy sighed deeply.
“Have you heard from them?”
“No, not yet.”
“How much do you think it will fall?”
Peter, who had been silently calculating, cautiously spoke up.
“At least 5 pesos, at most 7 pesos.”
“Let's wait and see. If it falls below 5 pesos, contact them and suggest liquidation. It's your contract, after all.”
Tommy subtly passed the responsibility to Peter.
“But the contract was signed by you...”
“What are you talking about? You signed it under your name.”
However, the next day, another devaluation of the peso was announced. They couldn't even pass the blame to each other anymore.
With a large amount of dollars already leaving Mexico, another devaluation was impossible to stop.
In the end, Tommy instructed Peter to contact Hankyung.
— Hello.
Before James's voice even finished, Peter eagerly spoke.
“Hey, James! It's Peter.”
— Oh, Peter! It's been a while. What's up?
“Um... about that contract.”
— Huh? What contract?
James, pretending not to know, was annoying, but Peter couldn't show it.
All the executives were looking at him.
“It's about the peso. When are you going to liquidate? We should liquidate now since we've made a profit.”
— Oh! I remember that. But it's not due yet, right?
“It's about a month away. But we don't know what will happen. Liquidate now. As a senior who's been on Wall Street for a long time, I'm giving you advice.”
Peter heard a laugh from the other end of the phone.
— Hey, Peter. I haven't forgotten the look in your eyes when you mocked me. Senior, my ass. See you in January.
With that, the call ended.
“James! James!”
Peter desperately called out, but the other party, who had hung up, didn't answer.
Half in a daze, he came to his senses when called by an executive.
“What did he say?”
“Huh?”
“Did he agree to liquidate?”
“Um...”
“Come on, spit it out.”
“He said he'll see us in January and hung up.”
The executives' sighs filled the office.
“What are we going to do now?”
Tommy asked, almost scolding, and Peter looked up at him defiantly.
“Why are you asking me?”
“Who else should I ask? It's your contract, isn't it?”
“Ask the crazy Mexican government. What were they thinking? And you signed the contract, Tommy. Don't try to pass the blame to me.”
“What?!”
The chairman, who had been listening, clicked his tongue.
Tommy, who was about to say something, closed his mouth.
“What matters is not who signed the contract. Can we fix this?”
Neither Tommy nor Peter could answer. How could they fix this?
“Peter, you're fired. And Tommy, you're fired too. You're the ones responsible for this.”
With the chairman's stern words, Peter accepted his fate.
He nodded and left the office, returning to his team.
He couldn't say anything to the resentful looks of his team members.
“I'm sorry.”
* * *
The new year of 1995 arrived.
The decline of the peso continued into the new year.
— Brother, let's liquidate now. Dump everything.
“Okay! I'm ready.”
Hankyung was excited by Muhyeok's instructions.
A day after starting the liquidation:
“Muhyeok, liquidation complete!”
— What's the profit?
“It was originally $2.6 billion, but it dropped by about $100 million when we finished. $2.5 billion.”
— Good job. Take a break for a while, brother. I've assigned stock investments to the employees.
“Yeah, I don't have the energy to handle that.”
— That's right. Stocks are ultimately for show. You did well. Focus on futures and options. We'll start again soon. Get plenty of rest and take care of your health.
“Can I go to Korea for a break?”
— No. You absolutely cannot come to Korea for now.
With Muhyeok's firm words, Hankyung sighed and ended the call.
“Hahaha.”
Hankyung, leaning back in his chair, couldn't stop the laughter that kept coming out.
He couldn't forget the changed expressions of those who had mocked him last summer.
‘Did you know? Did you really predict this would happen more than six months ago?’
It was the question from the executive who replaced Tommy and Peter.
‘I'm not a god. How could I have known? Everyone knew the peso was overvalued. I just bet on it and won.’
Hankyung answered that way.
He could leave Goldman Sachs headquarters, laughing at them after completing the liquidation.
“...What the hell is Muhyeok's true identity?”
Hankyung muttered to himself, chuckling.
* * *
Sitting on the bed, I stared blankly at the ceiling.
Even knowing the future, the thrill of having my predictions come true made it hard to sit still.
Yes, this is it. $2.5 billion.
At the current exchange rate, that's 20 trillion won.
If calculated at the 2000 won exchange rate during the IMF crisis, it would be 50 trillion won.
‘Is Grandfather's wealth greater than mine?’
I couldn't help but chuckle.
This was just the beginning.
I had only passed one opportunity out of many to come.
In the battle between me, who knows the future, and the financial firms that merely predict it, I could never lose.
How could I lose in a gamble where I know the other player's hand before the game even starts?
“Manager.”
Manager Ma, who had been waiting outside the door, entered.
“I'll be meeting the loan sharks in Myeongdong one by one, so set up the appointments. How's Chunsuwan doing?”
“There's no movement.”
That man couldn't stay still forever.
Was sending him abroad a mistake?
“I can't scare him from Australia. I mean, the pain Chunsuwan is feeling.”
Chunsuwan was almost mentally broken.
Unable to bear the fear, he attempted suicide, but failed due to the people in the same room.
“Killing him is possible, but the same method is difficult.”
“Hmm... What about pushing him with a car?”
“He hardly leaves his house. Even if he does, it won't be easy. The chairman's eyes are on him.”
I quietly clicked my tongue.
Grandfather was the problem.
Grandfather knew Chunsuwan's condition but never mentioned it to me.
But killing him was a different matter.
At least while Grandfather was alive, I didn't want to cause him more pain.
I knew the pain of losing family.
“Let's watch and see. He won't give up easily.”
“Understood.”
Just because he couldn't return to Korea didn't mean I would forgive him